Why China and Russia Are Silent on the U.S.–Iran Escalation And What Their Next Moves Might Be

 

The Calculated Silence: Why China and Russia Watch the US-Iran Escalation, and What They Might Be Planning

The recent escalation between the United States and Iran, marked by Israeli and American strikes on Iranian infrastructure, has sent tremors across the Middle East. Yet, amid the rising tensions, a striking silence emanates from two global powers: China and Russia. While seemingly passive, this apparent quietude is far from indifference. Instead, it represents a calculated diplomatic and strategic maneuver, one that benefits their long-term objectives and potentially sets the stage for their own assertive moves on the global chessboard. For Beijing and Moscow, a protracted US entanglement in the Middle East is not a crisis to avert, but a strategic opportunity to exploit.

The Apparent Silence: A Calculated Facade

On the surface, both Russia and China have issued statements that appear to align with a call for de-escalation and adherence to international law. Russia's Foreign Ministry advised its citizens to leave both Iran and Israel amidst the worsening conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin condemned the US strikes on Iran as "unjustified" and "unprovoked aggression," urging de-escalation. Similarly, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi condemned both Israeli and US bombardments of Iranian nuclear facilities, cautioning against attacking over "possible future threats" and advocating for a return to diplomacy.

However, these condemnations ring hollow when examined against the backdrop of their deeper strategic interests and actions. Despite signing a 20-year strategic pact with Iran earlier this year, Russia has notably avoided making concrete military commitments to defend Tehran, with the agreement lacking any mutual defense clause. This has led to frustration among Iranian officials, who reportedly feel let down by both Moscow and Beijing despite repeated calls for support. The Kremlin, it seems, is wary of provoking a direct confrontation with Washington, especially as President Trump seeks to ease tensions with Moscow amidst the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

China’s diplomatic stance is equally illustrative of a self-serving neutrality. Beijing famously lost credibility as a neutral actor by refusing to directly condemn Hamas for the October 7th attacks. Its calls for restraint following the US-Iran escalation are interpreted not as genuine mediation efforts, but as a scramble to limit its own exposure, given that Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure directly harm China's interests, including access to discounted oil and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) routes. Despite their declared "no-limits partnership" in February 2022, China maintains a crucial boundary: it is unwilling to limit its strategic autonomy or risk significant sanctions from the West by providing direct military assistance to Russia in Ukraine or making binding mutual defense commitments. This transactional approach ensures that while they may collaborate on military technology and conduct joint exercises, China's participation remains carefully measured, prioritizing its own national interests above all else.

Iran: More Than Just a Middle Eastern Pawn

For both China and Russia, Iran is not merely another Middle Eastern state; it is a critical strategic asset in their broader anti-Western agenda. Iran’s revolutionary ideology, framed around “resistance” to Western dominance, provides a convenient moral and ideological framework for challenging the U.S.-led global order. Beyond rhetoric, Iran plays three converging geostrategic roles for the Russia-China axis:

• Regional Destabilizer: Through its sprawling proxy network across Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, Iran consistently destabilizes the Middle East. These armed movements aim to encircle Israel, weaken American allies, and shift the regional balance through relentless asymmetric warfare. This low-cost strategy allows Beijing and Moscow to reap the benefits of regional turmoil without direct military involvement.
• Sanctions Evasion Facilitator: Iran serves as a crucial strategic asset by facilitating sanctions evasion and anchoring diplomatic coalitions aimed at eroding the U.S.-led order. Its long-standing experience in bypassing Western financial systems provides a blueprint for other sanctioned nations, notably Russia.
• Geographic and Logistical Bridge: Iran offers significant geographic and logistical depth to the axis, acting as a bridge between Eurasia and the Middle East. For China, Iran's position is vital to its infrastructure push across southern Asia, particularly the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). For Moscow, it offers a rear base for military and paramilitary coordination.

Furthermore, Iran possesses a formidable conventional military, estimated at 610,000 active personnel, the largest in the Middle East. It has developed significant asymmetric warfare capabilities, including a formidable ballistic missile program (described by the Pentagon as unrivaled in the Middle East) and a growing drone program. Unlike forces in Iraq or Syria, Iran has spent decades preparing for conflict with the US, developing deeply buried and hardened defense facilities. This resilience makes Iran a valuable, albeit complex, partner for powers seeking to distract and dilute American influence. (For further reading on Iran's strategic capabilities, consider exploring reports from the Council on Foreign Relations - Iran Primer.)

Russia's Strategic Gains: Alleviating Pressure on the Eastern Front

A US-Iran war would serve as a profound strategic distraction for Washington, directly benefiting Russia’s geopolitical ambitions. Every military asset, intelligence resource, and diplomatic effort diverted to the Middle East would be one less focused on countering Russia’s expansionist policies in Eastern Europe or its growing assertiveness in the Arctic.

Moscow has already skillfully leveraged Western focus on Ukraine to pursue its own objectives. A new, protracted conflict for the US in the Middle East would further alleviate pressure on Russia, potentially allowing it to:

• Increase military activities in Ukraine: With US attention and resources shifted, Russia could intensify its war efforts, as it relies heavily on Iranian support for its drone warfare campaign. While Israel’s Operation Rising Lion might disrupt some elements of Russia’s drone-production supply chain by eliminating key Iranian figures, Russia has also reduced its dependence on Iran by building its own drone production facilities. However, it still relies on Iranian-made parts for certain models.
• Strengthen its hold over former Soviet republics: A distracted US would have less capacity to counter Russian influence in its "near abroad".
• Make more aggressive moves in the Arctic: Russia, in cooperation with China, views the Arctic as an arena of converging geopolitics, security, and great-power competition. Joint-use military and logistical bases in the Arctic with China are becoming more tangible, supporting naval operations, strategic aviation, and even submarine deployments.

The collapse of the Assad regime in late 2024, following Israel’s stunning destruction of Hizballah, has already disrupted Russia’s Syrian foothold, which was a core foundation of its military cooperation with Iran. Iran's deteriorating regional standing, exacerbated by sustained Israeli strikes, further curtails its ability to support Russian operations. This puts Russia in a weaker position in Syria, turning what was once a buffer zone into a strategic vulnerability. However, a broader US-Iran conflict could mitigate this by absorbing American resources elsewhere. Russia and China also engage in low-intensity, deniable operations, such as damaging undersea data cables, indicating a willingness to employ asymmetric tactics against Western critical infrastructure.

China's Grand Chessboard: Seizing the Indo-Pacific Opportunity

For China, a protracted US entanglement in Iran offers a multi-layered strategic windfall. The primary benefit would be the diversion of American military, economic, and diplomatic resources away from the Indo-Pacific, effectively derailing the "pivot to Asia" that has been a cornerstone of recent US foreign policy. Every dollar spent, every troop deployed, and every diplomatic hour consumed in Iran is a resource not directed towards countering China's growing influence. Previous "forever wars" in Afghanistan and Iraq cost the US trillions of dollars, straining its economy and hindering investments in critical domestic infrastructure and technological advancement, areas where China is rapidly closing the gap or even surpassing the US.

Perhaps the most chilling, albeit speculative, benefit for China lies in a potential opening for Taiwan. If the US military is deeply enmeshed in a costly, attritional war in Iran, its capacity and political will to respond effectively to a Chinese move on Taiwan would be severely diminished. Beijing would closely observe US resolve and capabilities, and while it stands to lose from global economic instability, the long-term strategic gain of "reclaiming" Taiwan might outweigh short-term economic turbulence.

Beyond this, a US-Iran conflict allows China to enhance its soft power and global narrative. As the US once again plunges into a Middle Eastern conflict, China can continue to portray itself as a responsible global power focused on economic development and multilateralism. Its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with Iran as a vital land-based corridor connecting East Asia to Europe, offers a stark contrast to US military interventions. While short-term disruptions to BRI projects are possible, China's long-game strategy would be to present itself as the builder and peacemaker, ultimately eroding US influence and attracting more partners to its vision of a multipolar world. Iran's full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in 2023 further solidifies its strategic alignment with China and Russia, offering a platform for coordinated responses to regional challenges.

Economically, China stands to benefit from rising global oil prices that would almost certainly result from a major conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. While China relies heavily on Middle Eastern oil, it has been actively building up its strategic oil reserves to mitigate such shocks. Critically, rising prices would disproportionately benefit Russia, a major energy exporter, boosting its budget and further solidifying the Sino-Russian energy axis. China can then turn to Russia for increased energy imports, enabling Moscow to weather Western sanctions. (To understand China's broader infrastructure push, see this article on China's Belt and Road Initiative and its global impact.)

The "Axis of Evasion": A Coordinated Economic Front

The strategic silence of China and Russia is intrinsically linked to their highly sophisticated, coordinated efforts to circumvent Western sanctions. Both Iran and Russia rely on oil revenue as a lifeline, and Western sanctions have jeopardized their ability to ship oil and receive payments. In response, these countries, with China’s crucial assistance, have developed an "alternative market of sanctioned oil".

Key elements of this "axis of evasion" include:

• Dark Fleet Tankers: Iran and Russia ship oil using a "dark fleet" of older tankers that operate outside of maritime regulations. These vessels employ tactics like turning off transponders, sending fake location information ("spoofing"), and conducting ship-to-ship transfers outside authorized zones to avoid detection.
• Renminbi-Denominated Payments: Payments for this sanctioned oil are increasingly denominated in Chinese currency (renminbi), often routed through smaller, US-sanctioned Chinese banks like the Bank of Kunlun. This strategy helps China avoid exposing its large international banks to the risk of US financial sanctions.
• Rebranding of Oil: Once oil shipments reach China, they are frequently rebranded as Malaysian or Middle Eastern oil and purchased by "teapots" – small, independent refineries that have absorbed roughly 90% of Iran's oil exports since state-owned refiners curtailed transactions due to sanctions fears.
• Dual-Use Goods Supply: China has become a crucial enabler of Russia's war effort in Ukraine, supplying military-technological components, parts, and raw materials. This includes semiconductors (China accounts for 89% of Russia's microchip imports), critical minerals, and nitrocellulose for explosives. China also supplies Russia with a huge variety of dual-use goods, most notably unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) like the Mavic series, which are used for military purposes despite being labeled for "civilian use". There is also evidence of China producing armed drones for Russia.

In 2023, China reportedly saved ten billion dollars by purchasing crude oil from sanctioned countries such as Iran and Russia. This strategic cooperation undermines Western sanctions and restricts Western jurisdictions’ access to financial transaction data, thereby weakening their enforcement efforts. While China does not provide Russia with heavy weaponry en masse due to sanctions risks, its indispensable role in supplying dual-use components and propping up both economies through illicit trade is a direct challenge to the US-led international order. (For more detailed insights into these financial mechanisms, readers can refer to analyses by the Atlantic Council - GeoEconomics Center.)

A Calculated Bet: The Limits of Loyalty and the Pursuit of Self-Interest

Despite the deepening military-technical partnership and shared anti-Western sentiment, the relationship between China and Russia remains short of a formal, institutionalized alliance with mutual defense obligations. This is a pragmatic convergence, not a bond of deep trust or shared values.

China, with its long-standing commitment to a foreign policy rooted in self-interest, avoids binding security commitments that could compromise its strategic autonomy or lead to open conflict with the West. This is evident in Beijing's refusal to officially recognize Russia's territorial gains in Ukraine since 2014, and its 2023 conflict settlement plan explicitly supporting the territorial integrity of all states. There is also a quiet wariness within China's political elite regarding Vladimir Putin’s confrontational leadership style, with some viewing him as a destabilizing force.

Both regimes exhibit a pronounced "besieged fortress" mentality, perceiving their international surroundings as inherently hostile and interpreting the actions of neighboring states through a lens of suspicion and encirclement. This shared diagnosis of vulnerability reinforces their instinct to cooperate, not as allies bound by shared values, but as strategic actors united by circumstantial alignment. As long as their respective goals remain compatible and both recognize that neither possesses genuine allies but only situational partners, this logic of ad hoc collaboration is likely to persist. China's approach to the US-Iran escalation is a testament to this, allowing it to leverage tensions to its advantage while minimizing direct risk. (To learn more about China's strategic thought, consider reading about the concept of 'strategic autonomy' in China's foreign policy.)

Conclusion: Implications for the Global Order

The apparent silence of China and Russia regarding the US-Iran escalation is, in fact, a carefully orchestrated strategic posture. Far from being passive bystanders, Beijing and Moscow are actively observing, calculating, and preparing to capitalize on the profound geopolitical implications of a prolonged US entanglement in the Middle East.

For Russia, such a conflict offers a critical reprieve, diverting American attention and resources from Ukraine and other strategic theaters like the Arctic, potentially allowing Moscow to consolidate gains or expand influence elsewhere. For China, the stakes are even higher: a bogged-down America in Iran would directly undermine its "pivot to Asia," strain its economy, and potentially create a critical window of opportunity for its ambitions in the Indo-Pacific, most notably concerning Taiwan.

Moreover, the sophisticated "axis of evasion" forged by China, Russia, and Iran represents a formidable challenge to the efficacy of Western sanctions and the US-led international financial order. By sustaining each other through illicit trade and alternative payment systems, they not only bolster their economies but also systematically chip away at the credibility and leverage of Western punitive measures.

The strategic coordination between Russia and China, while not a formal military alliance, is a pragmatic convergence driven by a shared aversion to the Western-led liberal international order. Their "silence" is a strategic choice, designed to allow the US to sink deeper into what they perceive as an "Iran Trap," thereby accelerating the desired shift in the global balance of power. As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, understanding this calculated inaction is crucial for anticipating the next moves on the global chessboard. The world must remain vigilant, recognizing that the echoes of silence from Beijing and Moscow often presage their most decisive actions.