Iran–Israel Conflict 2025: India’s Silent Diplomacy

 Iran–Israel Conflict: India's Silent Diplomacy Amid Rising Tensions

The Iran–Israel conflict in mid-2025, intensified by Israel’s airstrikes under Operation Rising Lion, has reignited longstanding rivalries in West Asia. This rising tension threatens global oil supply routes and has prompted renewed scrutiny of India’s silent diplomacy in the region.

The volatile landscape of West Asia is once again gripped by escalating tensions, underscored by recent Israeli airstrikes in June 2025, dubbed "Operation Rising Lion," which have propelled simmering animosities between Tehran and Tel Aviv into overt military confrontation. This intensification of the Iran–Israel conflict has sent shockwaves across global energy markets, triggering a significant 7% surge in oil prices and raising critical concerns about the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a vital chokepoint through which a fifth of the world's oil supply transits. Beyond immediate economic repercussions, the enduring specter of nuclear proliferation looms large, with Iran reportedly expanding its nuclear capabilities to 60% uranium purity by early 2024, prompting regional powers like Saudi Arabia to consider their own nuclear programs.

Amidst this escalating crisis, India finds itself navigating a profoundly complex and delicate diplomatic tightrope. As a nation with significant, albeit distinct, strategic relationships with both Israel and Iran, New Delhi is compelled to uphold its core national interests—primarily defence, energy security, and regional stability—while assiduously avoiding entanglement in the direct conflict. This nuanced balancing act, characterized by what many observe as "silent diplomacy," is a hallmark of India's foreign policy approach to West Asia.

Why the Iran–Israel Conflict 2025 Matters Deeply for India’s National Interests

The volatility in West Asia carries profound implications for India’s geopolitical and economic stability. India is deeply interconnected with the region, importing over 80% of its oil, making any disruption in supply lines a direct threat to its energy security and a potent driver of domestic inflation. A mere $10 per barrel increase in global oil prices can inflate India's current account deficit by nearly $10 billion, leading to spikes in food and fuel prices that directly impact its vast population.

Beyond energy, India's strategic interests extend to crucial connectivity projects. The Chabahar Port, developed with substantial Indian investment in Iran, serves as a vital artery for trade with Afghanistan and Central Asia, offering a strategic alternative that bypasses Pakistan. Any prolonged instability or conflict in the region could severely hinder India's long-term strategic outreach and economic interests tied to the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).

Furthermore, the sheer scale of the Indian diaspora in the Gulf and West Asia—millions of workers whose remittances account for approximately 3% of India's GDP—presents a significant humanitarian and economic vulnerability. Mass evacuations or disruptions to their income streams would pose a serious challenge for the Indian government. The conflict also intertwines with broader geopolitical shifts, particularly the growing influence of China in West Asia, exemplified by its role in brokering the Saudi-Iran peace deal. This evolving dynamic compels India to constantly reassess its regional engagements to safeguard its strategic calculus and protect its interests.

India's Enduring Ties: A Dual Partnership in West Asia

India’s foreign policy in West Asia is distinguished by its cultivation of strong relationships with both Israel and Iran, each serving unique and indispensable strategic purposes.

Deepening Defence and Technology Links with Israel

India formally recognized Israel in 1950, but it wasn't until 1992 that full diplomatic relations were established, marking a significant shift in India's long-standing pro-Arab and pro-Palestinian stance. This normalization paved the way for a rapid expansion of bilateral ties, particularly in the fields of defence, trade, science, and technology. Israel has emerged as one of India’s top defence suppliers, providing critical technologies such as drones, radar systems, and missile defence systems like the Barak-8. By 2022, India had become the largest purchaser of Israeli-made arms, spending over $1 billion annually. Beyond military cooperation, the two nations collaborate on counter-terrorism, joint military exercises, and defence innovation, making Israel a critical partner in India’s national security framework.

The relationship has broadened steadily over the last two decades, encompassing agriculture, cybersecurity, and space technology. A watershed moment was Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s historic visit to Israel in 2017, the first by an Indian Prime Minister to the Jewish state. This visit signaled New Delhi’s willingness to engage Tel Aviv independently of its relations with the Arab world or Iran, embodying a "de-hyphenation" strategy where India manages its ties with Israel and Palestine as separate entities.

Strategic Energy and Connectivity via Iran

India's relationship with Iran is rooted in deep historical and cultural ties and plays a crucial role in India’s energy and trade security. Iran has historically been a significant energy supplier for India, at one point ranking as India's second-largest oil source, accounting for 12-13% of its oil imports in 2011. Although U.S. sanctions have complicated this relationship, forcing India to substantially reduce or even halt oil imports at various times, India has sought to maintain crucial economic ties with Iran while minimizing entanglement in broader regional conflicts.

A cornerstone of India-Iran cooperation is the Chabahar Port, developed with Indian investment. This port serves as a vital strategic link for trade with Afghanistan and Central Asia, offering a critical route that circumvents Pakistan. In 2024, India signed a decade-long agreement entrusting the port's management to India Ports Global Ltd, committing $85 million for berth improvements and a $150 million credit line through Exim Bank. This project highlights India's pragmatic diplomacy, aiming to strengthen its internal capacities, such as energy security, through strategic partnerships (Samavaya). Beyond trade, India and Iran share a common strategic objective of regional stability in Southwest Asia, with both concerned about prolonged instability in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

India’s Neutral Stance in the Iran–Israel War: A Strategic Tightrope

In the face of escalating Israel-Iran hostilities, India’s public stance has been one of deliberate neutrality and a consistent call for de-escalation and diplomacy. The Indian government has unequivocally urged restraint from both sides and pushed for diplomatic engagement. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has engaged with his counterparts in both Israel and Iran, conveying global concerns and emphasizing the urgent need for dialogue.

Reflecting this neutral posture, India notably distanced itself from a recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) statement that criticized Israel’s military operations against Iran, with India's endorsement conspicuously absent. The Ministry of External Affairs has consistently reiterated India's long-standing position favoring dialogue, diplomacy, and the peaceful resolution of conflicts in the region. This stance aligns with India’s broader policy of strategic autonomy—a core principle that guides its foreign policy to ensure balanced relations with multiple countries without being drawn into regional conflicts or "alliance-based entanglements".

This commitment to neutrality has at times drawn criticism domestically. For instance, Congress MP Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and other leaders from the INDI bloc condemned India's decision to abstain from a UN resolution on the Gaza ceasefire, calling it "shameful and disappointing" or a "reckless act of aggression". In response, the BJP government clarified its position, emphasizing India's deep concern for the humanitarian crisis and condemnation of civilian casualties, noting that India has "always been on the side of peace and humanity" and has consistently called for the protection of civilians and upholding humanitarian obligations. India has, in fact, voted in favour of Gaza ceasefires in December 2023 and 2024, demonstrating a nuanced approach rather than a static one.

Beyond diplomatic statements, India has taken concrete steps to safeguard its interests, activating emergency evacuation protocols for its millions of nationals residing across West Asia, particularly in Iran, Israel, Lebanon, and the Gulf states. This highlights the immediate priority of protecting its diaspora and preventing the conflict from spilling over into broader regional instability.

The Art of Quiet Diplomacy: India's Backchannel Strategy in West Asia

India's "silent diplomacy" is a sophisticated manifestation of its strategic autonomy, aiming to insulate itself from traditional "alliance-based entanglements" while preserving its national interests. As Ambassador Deepak Vohra articulated, India’s policy is clear: conflict is not the solution, and while it avoids the "dangerous term" of mediation, it remains ready to talk to both sides to "cool down" the situation. This approach means India is "not siding with anyone".

This strategic approach draws deeply from ancient Indian statecraft, particularly the Kautilyan principles. Sama (non-intervention) and Vyayama (active engagement) are seen as essential tools for ensuring the state's welfare and security (Yogakshema). Similarly, Asana (non-entanglement or waiting in neutrality) and Samavaya (pragmatic strategic partnerships) are central to India's ability to maintain flexibility and adaptability in its foreign policy. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar aptly summarized this philosophy, noting that for the "uninitiated," India's pursuit of "apparently contradictory approaches"—such as reconciling Iran with Saudi Arabia or Israel with Palestine—might seem "baffling," but the answer lies in a "willingness to look beyond dogma and enter the real world of convergences". Prime Minister Modi’s stated intent to engage with all regional actors, including Israel, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, further underscores this proactive balancing act. This diplomatic flexibility, a "key hallmark of Kautilyan statecraft," allows India to optimize its strategic position and enhance its influence in a multipolar world.

Echoes of the Past: India’s Historical Approach to Middle East Conflicts

India's current diplomatic balancing act is not a new phenomenon but rather a continuation of a historical pattern of engagement in West Asia. For nearly 40 years after its independence, India purposely distanced itself from Israel, driven by its staunch pro-Arab and pro-Palestinian policy, a legacy that included co-sponsoring a 1975 UNGA resolution equating Zionism with racism and expelling an Israeli consul in 1982 for criticizing India’s stance. However, this "recognition without relations" approach evolved significantly with the establishment of full diplomatic ties in 1992. This shift was pragmatic, driven by India’s rising economic power and a recognition that Israel's military technology, agricultural innovation, and investment potential were crucial.

Following 1992, India adopted a "de-hyphenation" policy, strategically separating its bilateral relationship with Israel from its historical support for the Palestinian cause. As former Ambassador Shivshankar Menon noted, Arab and Muslim countries generally understood India’s "predicament" and focus on "national interests" without demanding a binary choice. This approach allowed India to engage with both sides independently, as evidenced by Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao's visits to Oman and Iran in 1993 to balance newly established ties with Israel.

India has consistently maintained neutrality in regional disputes, a stance demonstrated during the Qatar diplomatic crisis in 2017, where it engaged with all parties without taking sides. Similarly, when facing mounting U.S. pressure and sanctions on Iran, India adopted a policy of "reluctant compliance," reducing oil imports but maintaining critical engagement on projects like the Chabahar Port, thus preserving its strategic autonomy. This historical consistency underscores India's deeply ingrained commitment to independent foreign policy choices, adapting tactics while maintaining core strategic objectives.

The Calculated Balance: Risks and Rewards of India's Neutral Stance

India's decision to maintain a neutral stance amidst the Iran-Israel conflict is a calculated strategy with both significant benefits and inherent risks.

Strategic Benefits of Non-Alignment

At its core, India's neutrality is a direct manifestation of its strategic autonomy—a principle that prioritizes its independent decision-making and avoids entanglements in the conflicts of others. This flexible approach allows India to:

• Diversify Partnerships: India can cultivate and deepen relationships with a wide array of partners, including those with conflicting interests, leveraging Israel's technological and defence breakthroughs while securing energy and economic cooperation from Iran and the GCC countries.

• Secure Vital Interests: By avoiding alignment, India safeguards its critical energy supplies, maintains access to key trade routes like Chabahar, and protects the welfare of its vast diaspora in the region.

• Enhance Influence: A neutral stance positions India as a trusted interlocutor and a "pillar of balance, pragmatism, and peace" in a highly volatile region. This gives India diplomatic leverage to advocate for de-escalation and peaceful resolutions on multilateral platforms, such as the UN Security Council.

• Optimize Resources: Adhering to the Kautilyan principle of Asana (non-entanglement) allows India to focus on strengthening its internal capacities and maximizing national power without expending resources on conflicts that do not directly serve its core interests.

Navigating Potential Pitfalls

Despite these advantages, India's neutrality is not without challenges:

• Alienation: There is a constant risk of alienating either Israel, Iran, or their respective global allies, including major powers like the U.S. or China, which could impact India’s broader foreign policy objectives.

• Domestic Sensitivities: Domestically, India’s policy choices in the Middle East can trigger political criticism and raise concerns among its significant Muslim population, requiring careful management of public sentiment.

• Economic Vulnerability: While aiming for stability, the conflict’s economic ripple effects—from disrupted trade to inflationary pressures—still pose direct threats to India’s economic growth and financial stability.

• Perceived Weakness: Some critics might interpret India's non-aligned stance as a lack of decisive leadership or an unwillingness to take a clear moral stand, potentially undermining its global image.

The Path Ahead: India’s Future Role in a Shifting Region

Looking forward, India's strategy in West Asia will likely continue its proactive diplomatic engagement to secure its interests and promote regional stability. This involves:

• Sustained Dialogue: India must intensify direct dialogue with both Israel and Iran, continually emphasizing the need for restraint and diplomatic solutions to avoid further escalation.

• Energy Diversification: To mitigate risks from supply disruptions, India will accelerate its efforts to diversify energy imports by exploring new suppliers from Africa, Central Asia, and Latin America, alongside building strategic petroleum reserves.

• Economic Diplomacy: Leveraging its economic footprint through strengthened bilateral trade agreements, expanded investment partnerships, and continued advancement of infrastructure projects like the Chabahar Port will remain paramount. This cultivates deeper ties and reinforces India’s presence as a stabilizing force.

• Soft Power Projection: Promoting its rich cultural heritage, democratic values, and expertise in various sectors through people-to-people ties, academic exchanges, and cultural diplomacy will enhance India's soft power and provide non-military avenues for conflict resolution.

• Multilateral Engagement: India's active participation in platforms like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the I2U2 initiative (India-Israel-UAE-USA) will be crucial as it expands its global footprint and seeks to influence regional peace and security discussions.

Ultimately, India’s role as a stabilizing force in West Asia is not merely aspirational but crucial for its long-term security and economic prosperity.

India’s West Asia Policy: Lessons from the Iran–Israel Escalation

In the turbulent waters of the Iran–Israel conflict, India's "silent diplomacy" is far from a passive withdrawal; it is a meticulously calibrated strategy rooted in its core foreign policy doctrine of strategic autonomy. Rather than aligning with one bloc or another, India's approach reflects a pragmatic realism that seeks to maximize national power and secure vital interests through flexible, issue-based partnerships. As a "pillar of balance, pragmatism, and peace", India strives to manage competing interests and uphold its principles without compromising its long-term strategic objectives. This is not weakness, but a sophisticated understanding of a complex geopolitical reality, allowing India to maintain its independent global standing and navigate volatility with resilience.

What are your thoughts on India’s approach to the Iran-Israel conflict? Do you believe its "silent diplomacy" is an effective strategy for safeguarding its interests and promoting regional stability? Share your views in the comments below.